Aethos August 2025 Newletter

Aethos Real Estate Update

Happy End of Summer!

I remember when I was a kid, school, at least on the East Coast, didn’t start until the first or second week of September. Of course, it also let out in mid-June! These days, most schools are already a week or two into the new year. And you know what that means: the fall real estate market starting bell has officially rung!

And what a summer it was.

Summer is usually a pretty quiet time in San Francisco real estate. Things tend to slow down in late June, stay sleepy through July, and finally start waking up in early August. This year, though, has been a little different.

Inventory thinned out, as it usually does, but buyers stayed very much in the game. In fact, some were bidding aggressively on just about anything that looked good.

I recently had a bid on a lovely fixer in the Outer Richmond. It was a solid house with plenty of potential to renovate and add space. It was listed at $1,998,000 and ultimately sold with eight offers for over $2,800,000!

So, once again, it’s a pretty darn good time to be a seller.

It’s a little tougher for buyers, but we’ve been busy helping several of our clients successfully navigate the market. In one case, we even managed to get a couple into a wonderful home in Sunnyside that hadn’t even hit the market yet. Sometimes it really does come down to knowing where to look and who to call.

653 Dolores: SOLD!

We are also thrilled to announce that we have sold and closed on our amazing listing at 653 Dolores!

Marcus Miller of Helm and I co-listed the property under our partnership, The Woodruff Miller Team, and we are incredibly proud of the result.

The last unit sold in the property had been on the market for more than a year and ultimately sold for $3,995,000. Just two years earlier, we had sold another unit in the building for $6,495,000. That drop had a significant impact on everyone’s perceived property value.

We sold 653 Dolores for $6,665,000, bringing the value of the property back up and then some.

One of the secrets to the success was our fabulous stager, Gigi Park. Katrina and her team absolutely knocked it out of the park. The staging was so good that the buyer actually purchased half of the furniture along with the house!

What’s Coming Up

We have some wonderful new listings in the works, so stay tuned!

Redwood City Midcentury Renovation

Coming toward the end of September, we’ll have a gorgeous redo of a midcentury home in Redwood City. It will feature 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a quarter-acre lot, near schools and on the south side of Woodside Road. We expect it to be priced around $2 million.

126 Aptos, Balboa Terrace

We also have a truly special home coming up in Balboa Terrace at 126 Aptos.

This one is going to be pretty phenomenal: approximately 4,200 square feet with 7+ bedrooms, 5 full baths, 2 powder rooms, and 4-car parking, with two spaces in the garage and two in the driveway.

There’s a lot more to tell you about this one, so take a look below for the details. We think it’s going to be something special.

A Little Bit of Paris in Eureka Valley

We also have a wonderfully charming off-market opportunity in Eureka Valley.

This full-floor Victorian flat feels less like San Francisco and more like a home you might stumble upon in Paris’ Marais District, or perhaps New York’s West Village. We’re planning to bring it fully to market in the spring, but if you know someone who is desperate to find something special right now, give us a call. You never know!

More details below.

A Big Ingleside Terrace Project

And finally, we’re just getting started on a new renovation in Ingleside Terrace, right on Urbano.

For those who don’t know the history, this area was once home to a racetrack where the legendary racehorse Seabiscuit famously ran.

The finished home will be approximately 3,500 square feet with 5 bedrooms and 4 baths, all set on a huge lot with an enormous backyard. There will be 4-car parking in the garage and driveway, plus additional parking down a side driveway for several more cars, campers, boats, or whatever else you might need to store.

This one is going to be a fun transformation. Stay tuned!

And Now for Something Completely Different...

For those of you who are, or have become, fans of San Francisco’s Dickens Fair, the same folks recently put on their first Historium Fair down at the Piers.

Think Dickens Fair, but instead of Victorian London, the setting is Old San Francisco between 1850 and 1900. This year was essentially a test run, and it was a big success. Next summer, it will run for three weekends, and we’ll definitely let you know when the dates are announced.

You can check it out here: The San Francisco Historium

And a quick reminder for all you Renaissance Faire fans: the Renaissance Pleasure Faire in Gilroy kicks off September 19 and 20 and runs through October 25. I’m planning to go opening weekend, and probably at least one more time. If you see me there, come say hello! Northern California Renaissance Faire

As Always, We’re Here

Whether you have a question about one of the properties above, are thinking about buying or selling, or simply want to know what’s happening in the San Francisco market, please reach out. We’re always happy to talk real estate, even if you’re just curious about what your home might be worth.

And remember, our network extends well beyond the Bay Area. We have relationships and contacts across the country, so if you or someone you care about is thinking about buying, selling, or moving somewhere else, let us know. We’re always happy to make a good introduction.

Enjoy these last few days of summer, and have a fabulous fall!

- John L. Woodruff III, LIC #00952491

Coming Soon - Mid-September

126 Aptos Ave

San Francisco

7 Bedrooms | 5 Full Baths |

2 Powder Rooms | 4 Car Parking

Price: TBD

A beautifully reimagined home in SF's Balboa Terrace neighborhood. We have tansformed this nice 5 bedroom 3000 sq ft home into a magnificent 4200+ square foot, 7+ bedroom, 5 bath (plus 2 half baths) home. The living space features a large formal living room with woodburning fireplace, a brand new, open, chef's kitchen with an 8 foot island, a lovely dining area and butler's pantry. On the main level is also a the first primary suite w/full bath, a second bedroom/office and half bath. Upstairs is the second primary suite with walk in closet, a a luxury bath with soaking tub and separate shower stall and double vanity. Both have views of the Ocean. Also on this level is are two more bedrooms, laundry closet and another full bath. Downstairs there is a large family room with wetbar and entertainment wall, 3 more bedrooms, another full bath, another half bath and a second laundry. Also on this level is a two car side by side garage, extra storage and direct access to the private fenced patio.

Located in San Francisco's Balboa Terrace neighborhood the home is near to some of San Francisco's best schools, West Portal, The Stonestown Shopping Center and quick access to 280 and the Peninsula. The home is also directly across the street from Aptos Park with playground, tennis courts, baseball diamond and walking track. This home is a remodel done through our Aethos Revive program. Expected on market early to mid September.

(Note: The image shown is a digital rendering and may not be exactly what it looks like when finished) See the before pics here: 126 Aptos

Off Market Opportunity

354 Sanchez Street

Asking: $1,655,000

2+ Bedrooms | 2 baths

A Slice of Paris in Eureka Valley

Currently being marketed off market this property can be shown and sold!

With an exceptional Walk Score of 99, this enchanting full-floor garden flat feels as though it has been transported from the charming streets of the Marais. Even better, you're just a block and a half from Le Marais Bakery & Café, where morning croissants and café au lait can easily become part of your daily routine.

Occupying the lower level of a beautifully preserved three-unit Victorian built in 1902, this six-room home blends timeless character with thoughtful modern updates. The elegant primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a sun-filled bay window, a marble fireplace, a luxurious marble-tiled bath, and a generous walk-in closet worthy of a Paris apartment.

The inviting living room is lined with custom built-ins that cleverly conceal a large flat-screen television while offering abundant space for books, art, and treasured collections. A spacious second bedroom provides exceptional flexibility with a built-in queen Murphy bed and a convenient step-in closet. The adjoining den is ideal as a home office or guest room, complete with a full-size Murphy bed and a closet with a stacked washer and dryer.

The bright west-facing kitchen is both beautiful and functional, showcasing marble countertops, three oversized pantries, and a welcoming dining area with built-in bench seating for six. French doors open directly to a private, shared landscaped garden, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor lifestyle. Enjoy evenings gathered around the fire pit or savor a morning coffee at the café table just outside your door.

A convenient trades entrance provides easy access along with dedicated storage space for bicycles, completing this rare urban retreat that captures the romance of Paris while embracing the vibrant lifestyle of Eureka Valley.

Note: Showings by appointment only. Sellers intend to use it on and off during the fall and put it on the market, fully staged in the spring. But they are willing to sell now at their asking price or above. Pictures are from a previous staging, but there is some furniture there now.

www.354Sanchez.com

SOLD!

653 Dolores Street

LighthouseonDolores.com

Asking: $6,665,000

In cooperation with Marcus Miller at Helm Real Estate we are thrilled to announce that this super special property seems to have found its new owner and should be closing in the next week or so. If you haven't checked it out click on the website above for videos, floor plans and a 3D walk through. One of my favorite places to have sold and now for the second time.

We had the pleasure of helping the developer find this special property when it was still an old church in need of major repair and seismic work. Then, after the 4 year rehab we helped him sell the 3 lower units, each over 5000 sq ft. (He kept the 4th for himself, up in the dome, and is that a place!) We are now about to complete our second successful resale of one of those units.

We love finding creative spaces and helping our clients see the potential. This is the 5th time we have successfully sold one of the units in the building. And side fact, over the years we have sold 4 different churches in SF for different uses. In the US we don't have a lot of castles to rehab so churches and firehouses often capture the imagination and creativity of those looking for something different.

Here's a little video we did about the sale -

SOLD - Representing the Buyers

5 Corinthian Court, Novato

Sold for: $529,950

2 bedrooms | 1.5 Baths | 1 Parking

We love helping our clients find their first home. It can be scary but also so exciting. Even better is when we can help friends. Jessamy Collier Kent on the team helped this wonderful couple and good friends and who we have all known well for years! We are all so happy for them. Jessamy worked with them during a particularly trying transaction (no fault of buyers or sellers, just difficult HOA management company) and got it closed after 4 months! But Kristen and Andrew stuck with it and here we are! Cheers!!!!

Check out some pics here: 5 Corinthian Court

The Big Story

Quick Take:

Median home sale prices pulled back from June's twelve-month high, but at $434,100 they remain nearly 2% above where they stood a year ago.
Inventory declined in July, slipping below year-ago levels for the first time in months, and new listings fell sharply from June.
Existing home sales eased from June's pace but held slightly above last July, keeping demand roughly flat year over year.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

The spring rally takes a breather, but prices are still ahead of last year

After five straight months of gains carried the median sale price to $442,800 in June, July brought the first pullback of the year. The median home sold for $434,100, a 1.96% decline from June, though still 1.97% higher than the $425,700 we saw in July of last year. A modest summer dip is not unusual, and the bigger picture is that prices have climbed roughly 9.9% since January's $395,000 trough. On the financing side, the 30-year mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.43% in July before jumping to 6.69% in August, its highest level since last summer and a meaningful move away from the 6% low we saw back in March. That combination of a slightly lower price and a slightly lower rate trimmed the median monthly P&I payment to $2,254 in July, down from $2,286 in June. The catch is that this figure is now essentially identical to the $2,253 buyers were paying a year ago, meaning the affordability advantage that lower rates delivered earlier in the year has been completely erased. With August rates moving higher, payments look likely to head back up.

Inventory turns lower, and new listings drop off fast

Inventory data runs one month ahead of the other figures, and it tells us the supply build that defined the first half of the year has reversed course. July inventory came in at 1,540,000 homes, a 1.91% decline from the 1,570,000 available in both May and June, and now 0.65% below the 1,550,000 we had at this time last year. That is a notable shift, because inventory had been running above year-ago levels through the spring. New listings reinforce the story.

Sellers brought 423,732 new listings to market in July, an 8.58% drop from June and 2.55% below last July's 434,816. Seasonality explains part of that decline, since listing activity typically peaks in late spring, but the year-over-year decrease suggests homeowners are becoming a bit more hesitant as rates push back toward 6.7%. Fewer new listings combined with steady sales activity means the pool of available homes is likely to keep thinning through the back half of the summer.

Sales cool off from June, but demand is holding its ground

Existing home sales registered 4,060,000 in July, down 1.69% from June's 4,130,000 and roughly 3% below May's 4,190,000 high for the year. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales are up 0.74% from last July's 4,030,000, which means demand is essentially holding steady rather than deteriorating. That is a reasonable outcome given what buyers are facing. Monthly payments are back to where they were a year ago, and the run of price appreciation from January through June asked buyers to stretch further with every passing month. What is encouraging is that sales have stayed in a fairly narrow band between 4,010,000 and 4,190,000 all year, showing a market that has found a floor even as financing costs have moved around. Also worth watching in the background: the Federal Reserve's mortgage-backed securities holdings continue to shrink, falling to $1.93 trillion in August from nearly $2.07 trillion last November, which removes a source of support for mortgage rates over time.

Tighter supply is helping sellers, but the national market still favors buyers

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

Nationally, 1,540,000 homes for sale against a sales pace of 4,060,000 homes per year works out to roughly 4.5 months of supply, which puts the country as a whole comfortably in buyers' market territory by California's three-month yardstick. That said, the trend is moving in sellers' favor. A year ago the same math produced closer to 4.6 months, and with inventory down 1.91% month over month, new listings down 8.58%, and sales holding above last year's level, supply is tightening rather than loosening. The counterweight is affordability: with the median P&I payment back at year-ago levels and August rates at 6.69%, demand could soften enough to keep the balance where it is. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!

Sold Representing the Buyers

537 Flood Street

San Francisco

$1,500,000

Gina Linton and John Woodruff were thrilled to help Grant and Melanie buy their very first home in SF's Sunnyside neighborhood. Best, we were able to get this for them before it came to market with no competition! The home features 5 rooms on the main level - living room, dining room, kitchen, two bedrooms and a bath. Additionally the home has a one bedroom apartment in the back adding the potential for additional income or expansion.

Big Story Data

Just Sold Representing Buyer

435 Urbano Drive

San Francisco

Sold for $2,312,000

Ingleside Terrace Fixer - This home was gutted by the previous owner and not finished. Our client will renovate using our Aethos Revive program. Just wait. See below....

Coming Soon - Late Fall '26

435 Urbano Drive

Price - TBD

We will be transforming this mid century home which has really been the odd man out in the neighborhood for years. Located on Urbano Dr, a former racetrack on which the famous racehorse, Sea Biscuit, famously ran. The home was built in the 1950's when most of the rest of the neighborhood was built from 1912-1930. So its always stood out a bit for lack of character. We are going to fix that and really rethink the whole house with some pretty special concepts. The finished home will be 5 bedrooms and 4 baths with an open floor plan on the top level. Additionally the home sits on very wide and deep lot, so features a large back yard and parking for over 6 cars! (2 sidexside in the garage, two in the front driveway and 2 or more along the side driveway. Or potentially room for a boat or RV.) Again we are using our Aethos Revive program to transform this property. Check out our website for more information on this amazing an innovative way to add value to your home before you sell.

Pictured above are a few rendering ideas of where we may take this property.

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Single-family home prices remain nearly 25% above year-ago levels at $2,050,000, even after easing modestly from June's peak.
Condo prices bucked the seasonal trend and rose in July, climbing 8.93% year-over-year to $1,250,000.
For-sale inventory sits at 507 homes citywide, with single-family listings down 42.11% and condos down 43.16% from last July.
Single-family homes are still selling in about two weeks, while condos have tightened to just 20 days.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Single-family prices cool from the peak but stay far above last summer

July delivered a slight pullback in San Francisco's single-family home market, with the median sale price settling at $2,050,000 after four consecutive months above $2.1 million. That represents a 4.65% decline from June's $2,150,000, but the year-over-year picture remains striking: prices are up 24.87% from the $1,641,750 median recorded last July. For context, the single-family median has now spent six straight months above the $2 million mark after starting the year at $1,653,325.

The condo market moved in the opposite direction, gaining 4.17% month-over-month to reach $1,250,000 and posting an 8.93% year-over-year increase from $1,147,500. That is a meaningful improvement from the flat annual comparisons condos were producing earlier this summer.

Bidding dynamics tell the rest of the story. Single-family homes continued selling for an average of 26% above their original list price, holding at the highest level in this data series and well above the 11% premium buyers were paying last July. Condos averaged 4% over original asking, down slightly from 6% in June but a substantial improvement from the 3% discount typical a year ago.

Inventory holds near record lows as condo listings thin out further

The supply picture remains the defining feature of this market. As of July, there were just 154 single-family homes for sale across San Francisco, a 42.11% decline from the 266 available last July. That figure is essentially flat with June's 151, suggesting the market has found a floor, but it is a remarkably low floor by any historical standard.

Condo inventory continued to shrink, falling 13.5% from June to 353 units for sale, and down 43.16% from 621 a year ago. Combined, that leaves barely 500 homes of any type on the market in a city of this size.

What makes the condo decline notable is that it is not being driven by a lack of sellers. New condo listings in July totaled 210, essentially unchanged from the 211 recorded last July. Instead, absorption is doing the work: 245 condos sold in July, a 39.2% jump from 176 a year ago. On the single-family side, new listings actually rose 13.5% year-over-year to 185, while sales slipped to 177 from 193. Sellers are coming to the table, but not fast enough to rebuild meaningful selection for buyers.

Days on market tell two very different stories

Single-family homes averaged 13 days on market in July, ticking up from the 12-day pace that held steady from February through June. It is a marginal shift, and still 7.14% faster than the 14 days recorded last July, but worth flagging as the first upward move in six months.

The condo market is where the real change has happened. Condos averaged 20 days on market in July, down from 23 in June and a dramatic 53.49% faster than the 43 days condos required last July. Historically, San Francisco condos slowed noticeably in the summer months, with August 2025 stretching to 51 days. This year, that seasonal drag has largely disappeared. Both property types are now clearing in under three weeks, which is a fundamentally different market than the one buyers navigated twelve months ago.

Sellers keep the upper hand across both property types

San Francisco sits firmly in seller's market territory on both fronts. Single-family homes carry just 0.8 months of supply, unchanged from June and down 42.86% from 1.4 months last July. At the current sales pace, every available single-family home in the city would be gone in roughly 24 days. Condos, meanwhile, have moved from a balanced market to a clear seller's market over the past year, dropping from 3.6 months of supply last July to 1.7 months now, a 52.78% decline and the lowest reading since December.

The significance here is that the condo segment, which spent most of 2024 and early 2025 above four months of supply, no longer offers buyers the negotiating room it once did. With both property types under two months of supply, faster sale times, and above-asking premiums holding firm, sellers retain substantial leverage heading into the fall.

Local Lowdown Data

List in Late Summer, Close in Fall:

Building a Selling Timeline That Works

A home sale rarely happens in one clean step. It unfolds in stages: preparation, pricing, listing, showings, negotiation, contract, and closing. That's why timing matters as much as the decision to sell itself. If listing in late summer and closing in fall appeals to you, the goal isn't chasing a perfect moment—it's building a timeline with enough room for real tasks, thoughtful decisions, and the normal pace of a U.S. home sale.

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